MLOpsFeb 20258 min

Customer Churn Signal Lab

Behind the churn experimentation stack: uplift modeling, event capture, and dashboards that ship retention decisions.

When we launched the retention initiative for a streaming product, our goal was simple: explain who was likely to leave and why we were missing signals. The execution required a disciplined blend of feature engineering, experimentation design, and storytelling.

Architecture Snapshot

  • Kafka captured product events and checkout signals in near real time.
  • dbt transformed cohorts + engagement metrics inside a warehouse with experiment flags.
  • Uplift models (XGBoost + causal forests) predicted segment-level response to save offers.
  • Grafana stitched metrics + qualitative insights into an executive-friendly dashboard.

Operating Model

We ran two-week iterations that paired experiment owners with data scientists. Every new hypothesis shipped with:

  1. A feature checklist (events, join logic, guardrails).
  2. An uplift estimation notebook.
  3. A storytelling tile in Grafana that highlighted wins + watchouts.

This workflow reduced the time to launch a new retention experiment from ~3 weeks to 8 days and gave marketing teams real-time context without needing a query.

Want the code? The repo has redacted notebooks and dbt models ready to fork. Back to related projects